Forecasting Auroras
Monitoring Weather
How do we monitor the solar cycle and space weather, variables that can significantly impact aurora borealis and aurora australis? Currently, We have many options that scientists utilize, such as using solar telescopes which can get images of the sun itself, and can get a graphic representation of magnetic fields on the sun. Solar activity can also be monitored by a solar radiometer. The sun has solar radio bursts that are monitored by an international solar radio spectrograph system. Auroral cameras can collect auroral imaging, and cosmic rays are monitored to see frequency and concentration for coronal mass ejections. The ionosphere is also monitored for aspects such as radio absorbency and its electric field. It is important for scientists to monitor solar weather because it can both affect aurora borealis and aurora australis and also key technologies in our society.
Ovation Center
There are many forecasts that show the location and intensity of a aurora. Based on the OVIATION model, it provides a 30 to 90-minute forecast of the specific location and the intensity. The forecast is lead in time and measures the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth. It also shows the north and south poles' brightness and location by a green oval. It would then turn red when​ auroras are more intense.
Geomagnetic Storms
There are 5 different types of geomagnetic storms, G-5,4,3,2,1. G-5 is the most extreme and is the least common out of the five, happening only 4 days during the solar cycle, which is 11 years. G-5 geomagnetic storms have the biggest effect on human technology as it can cause blackouts, cause issues tracking spaceships, and can affect radio navigation. G-4 storms are severe, and occur 60 days during the solar cycle. They can trip out power systems, and - similarly to G-5 - can also cause satellite and spaceship issues, in addition to radio problems. Then there are G-3 storms, which are classified as strong, and can trigger false alarms, increase drag to satellites near earth, and may cause issues for lower frequency radios. These happen 130 days for each 11 year solar cycle. G-2 storms occur 306 days in 11 years, and can cause transformer damage, extra drag for spaceships and satellites, and can cause issues with radio propagation. Lastly, there are G-1 minor storms, which can cause power fluctuations, minor satellite communications issues, can cause issues for migratory animals. These geomagnetic storms happen 900 days during the solar cycle. Geomagnetic storms can result in both auroras, and damage to human infrastructure.